The revenue the SAME idealised energy + FCAS LP would earn if it only knew AEMO's free public PREDISPATCH price forecast (issued before each trading day, no hindsight) instead of the true prices — settled at the prices that actually occurred. It isolates the value of price information with execution held equal to the perfect-foresight ceiling (same unconstrained flexibility), so it is NOT a claim about what a real operator could realistically achieve — a simple, realistic bidding strategy on the same forecast earns considerably less. A public-information reference, not a floor and not a target: actual can sit above it (a better private forecast or execution edge) or below it (poorer execution). Only the perfect-foresight ceiling truly bounds actual from above — except on days where a unit under-offers its own AEMO availability relative to what it actually dispatches, in which case actual can briefly exceed even the perfect ceiling and the displayed capture rate is capped at 100%.
The forecast-informed benchmark is the revenue the same idealised energy-plus-FCAS linear program would earn if it only knew AEMO's free, public PREDISPATCH price forecast — issued before each trading day, with no hindsight — instead of the prices that actually occurred, settled at those actual prices once known. It isolates the value of price information alone by holding execution flexibility equal to the perfect-foresight ceiling (the same unconstrained ability to switch between charging and discharging every interval).
Because of that, it is explicitly not a claim about what a real operator could achieve: a simple, realistic bidding strategy run on the same public forecast earns considerably less, since real dispatch is also bound by ramp rates, self-commitment and other mechanics the idealised model ignores. It is a public-information reference point, not a floor and not a target — actual revenue can sit above it (a better private forecast, or an execution edge) or below it (weaker execution). Only the perfect-foresight ceiling truly bounds actual revenue from above, and even that bound can be briefly exceeded on days where a unit under-offers its own AEMO-registered availability relative to what it actually dispatches.
Related terms: LP BackcastEnergy Capture
See also: Actual vs optimal performance
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